NFP warm up

Posted by Gatersaw | 5/02/2008 01:18:00 AM | , , | 0 comments »

Everyone wants to know what NFP is going to say about the economy and how they can make money on the report. The most profitable time to know it is before the release, so I'll post my prediction based on a system I've learned using other economic indicators. It looks like the revision this month should be minimal and if anything positive. The headline number I expect will contract significantly. If the jobs report is 50k worse than expected we'll see a good move down of 100 pips on USDCHF but expect Monday to reverse the tone as the Dollar is in vogue again and bank traders have a more advanced risk management outlook than the unreliable BLS (bureau of labor statistics) (Jeff's definition of BLS acronym: Bureau of Lame Statistics or perhaps Laxed Statistics. We might even choose to omit the word Bureau every other month just to see if you're paying attention). To be honest the NFP report has lost nearly all its luster of past years. The once greatest report on Earth has dwindled in significance mainly due to the discovery by traders that BLS toys with the numbers enough to cause a 200 pip move in the EURUSD. The BLS regularly adds or subtracts 50k-100k in jobs on their monthly report. This concept seems ludacris when the country as a whole is expected to add 100k jobs per month during expansion. If my accountant randomly added 100% of my monthly income to my May income I would not be excited about taxes and I would fire my accountant. The governments of the world tend to disagree with my small town economics. They prefer a system riddled with fraud and payoffs but most importantly a system they can manipulate when they need to. Enough of my soap box on the subject. I expect NFP to show a depressing figure tomorrow but I do not expect that tone to carry for more than a day.
How do I trade NFP for profits; you ask? "The same way we trade every day, Pinky"
No, seriously...how should we trade for NFP profits? Visit the trade calls blog. Don't get mad at me I just work here.

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